If you've been anywhere near a television screen for even five seconds recently, you'll know that the seventh season of American Idol starts tomorrow. You're familiar with the drill: a series of awful auditions followed by some trying-too-hard-to-be-vicious critique from Simon Cowell and his scary pecs, Paula Abdul's Southern Comfort 'n' cough syrup ramblings, and Randy Jackson saying whatever the hell Randy Jackson says, punctuated by a reference to canines. All that, plus the upbeat, sexually ambiguous stylings of Ryan Seacrest. Please set us on fire now.

That said, you have to acknowledge the instant credibility with which AI invests its contestants. Jennifer Hudson, Kelly Clarkson, Fantasia, Carrie Underwood, Daughtry, and, to some degree, Clay Aiken have all gone on to top the charts, receive respectable reviews, and triumph on Broadway while garnering major industry awards. Because of this, Idol is—inasmuch as anything that has only been around for six years—an institution that has shown few signs of aging or slowing down.

Yet it seems that a troubling trend is emerging for some of AI's most popular graduates. Within the past few weeks, two winners and one runner-up have been dropped by their record labels. Following an arrest, one former contestant is expected to play up her drug dependency and troubled childhood for the cameras on Celebrity Rehab, VH1's newest assault on taste and standards. With the exception of the doper, the other three seemed to have as much promise as more successful winners. What went wrong? Is there a scientific formula to determine who will win and succeed, or win and implode?

Of course there isn't. Why would you even ask such a remarkably stupid question? Nevertheless, we've come up with a deeply unscientific metric (trust us, this metric is so unscientific that if it were a presidential candidate, it would be Mike Huckabee) for gauging the future success of our latest Fallen Idols. We call it the Bounce or Implode Effect.

Ruben Studdard: After one successful million-selling album, Studdard released an ill-advised gospel follow-up. Wiser minds prevailed, and Studdard returned to his R&B roots. Sadly, he released what the New York Times referred to as "the auditory equivalent of prison rape ... a total shit-bomb."* J Records supremo Clive Davis promptly called Studdard into a meeting, asked him to stand three feet to the northwest of his massive Chippendale desk, and pulled the lever to a specially constructed trapdoor, effectively releasing Studdard from both his contract and the office.**

WILL HE BOUNCE OR IMPLODE?

We predict that Studdard will bounce. He has a rather promising future on the stage, perhaps in a starring role in a Tyler Perry production or with the traveling company of The Color Purple, followed by a slate of intimate lounge dates and a contract on a new label.

Taylor Hicks: The Soul Patrolman somehow managed to release a tepid single, a more tepid album, and an ultratepid autobiography before folks at J Records noticed that, hey, this guy's sales are kind of tepid, at which point they cut him loose. Also, there's that weird maybe-fake girlfriend thing.

WILL HE BOUNCE OR IMPLODE?

Mr. Hicks will bounce and roll. With his boyish good looks and preternatural salt-and-pepper locks, Taylor will wow 'em on the gay and Carnival cruise ship circuits, respectively.

Katherine McPhee: After selling an anemic 366,000 copies of her debut album, Kathy was also a victim of her record company's weapon of choice—the unforgiving sickle.

WILL SHE BOUNCE OR IMPLODE?

McPhee will bounce. With youth, beauty, and slightly more than adequate vocal talent, she will adopt the Mandy Moore/Ashanti template, switch to acting, and appear in several teen romance comedies. She will contribute a few top-10 songs to the movie soundtracks.

Jessica Sierra: Although she was neither a winner nor a particularly strong contestant, Jessica has the distinction of having the most spectacularly horrid past and present of all of scandal-tinged contestants. Including Frenchie! She was arrested for cocaine possession and tossing cocktails that resulted in facial injuries (love it!). She then revealed her mom's past as a prostitute and drug addict, which landed her a star turn on reality TV. Who could ask for anything more?

WILL SHE BOUNCE OR IMPLODE?

We predict Sierra will do the near-impossible—she will implode spectacularly, followed by a long and very painful public roll thanks to what is sure to be a wreck of a performance on the aforementioned Rehab, only to bounce by cashing in on her notoriety quotient and nabbing a prime gig on a reality TV show of her own.

* The New York Times did not actually say this, but it would not have been unjustified.
** This didn't happen, either. Studdard was dropped from J Records, but the construction industry has yet to come up with trapdoor technology durable enough to withstand Studdard's massive girth.